Oxford Long-Term Ecology Lab

Long-Term Ecology, Biodiversity Conservation, and Environmental Stewardship Technologies

Eligibility screening in evidence synthesis of environmental management topics. (2017)

Frampton G, Livoreil B, Petrokofsky G | DOI: 10.1186/s13750-017-0102-2

Systematic searching for environmental evidence using multiple tools and sources. (2017)

Livoreil B, Glanville J, Haddaway NR, Bayliss H, Bethel A, de Lachapelle, F, Robalino S, Savilaakso S, Zhou W, Petrokofsky G, Frampton G | DOI: 10.1186/s13750-017-0099-6

Shrub growth and expansion in the Arctic tundra: an assessment of controlling factors using an evidence-based approach (2017)

Martin, A.C; Jeffers, E.S; Petrokofsky, G.; Myers-Smith, I; and Macias-Fauria, M. | DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/aa7989

What are the environmental impacts of property rights regimes in forests, fisheries and rangelands?: a systematic review (2017)

Ojanen M, Zhou W, Miller DC, Nieto SH, Mshale B, Petrokofsky G. | DOI: 10.1186/s13750-017-0090-2

The natural capital of city trees (2017)

Willis KJ, Petrokofsky G | DOI: 10.1126/science.aam9724

Global Pollen Project v1.0 (2017)

Martin, A. C., Harvey, W. J. | DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.260180

The Global Pollen Project: A New Tool for Pollen Identification and the Dissemination of Physical Reference Collections (2017)

Martin, A. C., Harvey, W. J. | DOI: 10.1111/2041-210X.12752

Trees for life: the ecosystem service contribution of trees to food production and livelihoods in the tropics. (2017)

Reed J , van Vianen J, Foli S, Clendenning J, Yang K, MacDonald M, Petrokofsky G, Padoch C, Sunderland T. | DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.forpol.2017.01.012

What is the evidence that gender affects access to and use of forest assets for food security? (2017)

Chiwona-Karltun C, Kimanzu N, Clendenning J, Lodin JB, Ellingson C, Lidestav G, Mkwambisi D, Mwangi E, Nhantumbo I,Ochieng C, Sartas M, Petrokofsky G, | DOI: 10.1186/s13750-016-0080-9

What is the effect of prescribed burning in temperate and boreal forest on biodiversity, beyond tree regeneration, pyrophilous and saproxylic species? A systematic review protocol. (2016)

Eales J, Haddaway NR, Bernes C, Cooke SJ, Jonsson BG, Kouki J, Petrokofsky G | DOI: 10.1186/s13750-016-0076-5

Selecting appropriate methods of knowledge synthesis to inform biodiversity policy. (2016)

Pullin A, Frampton G, Jongman R, Kohl C, Livoreil B, Lux A, Pataki G, Petrokofsky G, Podhora A, Saarikoski H et al. | DOI: 10.1007/s10531-016-1131-9

Pollination service delivery for European crops: challenges and opportunities. (2016)

Nogué S, Long PR, Eycott AE, de Nascimento L, Fernández-Palacios JM, Petrokofsky G, Vandvik V, Willis KJ | DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2016.03.023

What evidence exists for the effectiveness of on-farm conservation land management strategies for preserving ecosystem services in developing countries? A systematic map. (2016)

Thorn JPR, Friedman R, Benz D, Willis KJ, Petrokofsky G | DOI: 10.1186/s13750-016-0064-9

Sensitivity of global terrestrial ecosystems to climate variability (2016)

Seddon, A.W.R., M. Macias-Fauria, P.R. Long, D. Benz, K.J. Willis | DOI: doi:10.1038/nature16986

The devil is in the detail: unstable response functions in species distribution models challenge bulk ensemble modelling (2016)

Hannemann, H. , Willis, K. J., Macias-Fauria, M. | DOI: 10.1111/geb.12381

The relative importance of biotic and abiotic processes for structuring plant communities through time (2015)

E.S. Jeffers, M.B. Bonsall, C.A. Froyd, S.J. Brooks, K.J. Willis | DOI: DOI: 10.1111/1365-2745.12365

The role of palaeoecological records in assessing ecosystem services (2015)

E.S. Jeffers, S. Nogue, K.J. Willis | DOI: 10.1016/j.quascirev.2014.12.018

Spatiotemporal patterns of warming (2014)

Macias-Fauria, M., A.W.R. Seddon, D. Benz, P.R. Long, and K.J. Willis | DOI: doi:10.1038/nclimate2372

Recovery and resilience of tropical forests after disturbance (2014)

Cole, L.E.S., S.A. Bhagwat, and K.J. Willis | DOI: 10.1038/ncomms4906

Changes in global nitrogen cycling during the Holocene epoch (2013)

McLauchlan, K.K., J.J. Williams, J.M. Craine and Elizabeth S. Jeffers. | DOI: 10.1038/nature11916

Determining the response of African biota to climate change: using the past to model the future (2013)

Willis, K.J., K.D. Bennett, S.L. Burrough, M. Macias-Fauria, C. Tovar | DOI:

Handbook for opening the vault: a helpful guide to using and interpreting paleontological data (2013)

Jeffers, E. S. | DOI:

Diverging responses of Tropical Andean biomes under future climate conditions (2013)

Tovar, C., C.A.Arnillas, F. Cuesta C., W. Buytaert | DOI:

Warming-induced upslope advance of sub-alpine forest is severely limited by geomorphic processes (2013)

Macias-Fauria M., and Johnson, E.A. | DOI: doi: 10.1073/pnas.1221278110.

Do dung fungal spores make a good proxy for past distribution of large herbivores? (2013)

Baker, A.G., Bhagwat, S.A., Willis, K.J. | DOI:

Landscape planning for the future: using fossil records to independently validate Bioclimate Envelope Models for economically valuable tree species in Europe (2013)

Macias-Fauria M., and Willis, K.J. | DOI: 10.1111/j.1466-8238.2012.00781.x

Reply to Cordova et al.’s comment on ‘Can phytoliths provide an insight into past vegetation of the Middle Kalahari palaeolakes during the late Quaternary’: A case of misinterpretation (2013)

Burrough, S. and Breman, E. | DOI:

Monitoring land use and land cover change in mountain regions: An example in the Jalca grasslands of the Peruvian Andes (2013)

Tovar, C., A. H. Seijmonsbergen, J. F. Duivenvoorden | DOI:

The ancient forests of La Gomera, Canary Islands, and their sensitivity to environmental change (2013)

Nogué, S.; de Nascimento, L; Fernández-Palacios, J.M.; Whittaker, R.J.; Willis, K.J. | DOI:

A chronology of climatic downturns through the mid and late Holocene – tracing the distant effects of explosive eruptions from palaeoclimatic and historical evidence in Northern Europe (2013)

Helama S., Holopainen J., Macias-Fauria M., Timonen M., Mielikäinen K. | DOI: doi: 10.3402/polar.v32i0.15866.

Elevational gradients in the neotropical table mountains: patterns of endemism and implications for conservation (2012)

Nogué, S; Rull, V; Vegas-Vilarrúbia, T. | DOI:

Resilience of an ancient tropical forest landscape to 7500 years of environmental change (2012)

Bhagwat, S. A.; Nogué, S.; Willis, K.J. | DOI:

Global warming, habitat shifts and potential refugia for biodiversity conservation in the neotropical Guayana Highlands (2012)

Vegas-Vilarrúbia, T.; Nogué, S.; Rull, V. | DOI:

Discussing the latest advances in biogeography with young biogeographers (2012)

Nogué, S.; Santos, A.M.C.; Sanders, M.; Ochoa-Ochoa, L.M. | DOI:

Recent Changes in Patch Characteristics and Plant Communities in the Jalca grasslands of the Peruvian Andes (2012)

Tovar, C., J. F. Duivenvoorden, I. Sánchez-Vega, A. H. Seijmonsbergen | DOI:

Plant and animal endemism in the eastern Andean slope: Challenges to conservation (2012)

Swenson, J.J., B.E. Young, S. Beck, P. Comer, J. H. Córdova, J. Dyson, D. Ember, F. Encarnación, W. Ferreira, I. Franke, D. Grossman, P Hernandez, S. K. Herzog, C. Josse, G. Navarro, V. Pacheco, B. A. Stein, M. Timaná, A. Tovar, C. Tovar, J. Vargas, C. M. Zambrana-Torrelio. | DOI:

Persistence matters: estimation of the statistical significance of paleoclimatic reconstruction statistics from autocorrelated time series (2012)

Macias-Fauria M. and Grinsted A., Helama S., and Holopainen J. | DOI: doi: 10.1016/j.dendro.2011.08.003

Determining the ecological value of landscapes beyond protected areas (2012)

Willis, K.J., E.S. Jeffers, C. Tovar, P. Long, N. Caithness, M.G.D. Smith, R. Hagemann, C. Collin-Hansen, J. Weissenberger. | DOI:

Shrub expansion in tundra ecosystems: Dynamics, impacts and research priorities (2012)

Myers-Smith I, Forbes B.C., Wilmking M., Hallinger M., Lantz T., Blok D., Tape K.D., Macias-Fauria M., Sass-Klaassen U., Lévesque E., Boudreau S., Ropars P., Hermanutz L., Trant A., Siegwart Collier L., Weijers S., Rozema J., Rayback S.A., Martin Schmidt N., Schaepman-Strub G., Wipf S., Rixen C., Ménard C., Venn S., Goetz S., Andreu-Hayles L., Elmendorf S., Epstein H.E., Welker J., Grogan P., and Hik D. | DOI: doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/6/4/045509

Climate change impacts on ecosystem functioning: evidence from an Empetrum heathland (2012)

Jeffers, E.S., M.B. Bonsall, J. Watson and K.J. Willis | DOI: 10.1111/j.1469-8137.2011.03907.x

Early human occupation and land use changes near the boundary of the Orinoco and the Amazon basins (SE Venezuela): Palynological evidence from El Paují record (2011)

MONTOYA, E.; RULL, V.; NOGUÉ, S. | DOI:

Forest–savanna–morichal dynamics in relation to fire and human occupation in the southern Gran Sabana (SE Venezuela) during the last millennia (2011)

MONTOYA, E.; RULL, V.; STANSELL, N.D.; ABBOTT, M.B.; NOGUÉ, S.; BIRD, W.B.; DÍAZ, W.A. | DOI: 10.1016/j.yqres.2011.06.014

How fire and climate shaped grass-dominated vegetation and forest mosaics in northern South Africa during past millennia. (2011)

BREMAN, E., GILLSON, l. & WILLIS, K.J. | DOI: doi: 10.1177/0959683611400196

When is an invasive not an invasive? Macrofossil evidence of doubtful native plant species in the Galapagos Islands. (2011)

COFFEY, E.E.D., FROYD, C.A., WILLIS, K.J. | DOI:

Late-Holocene successional dynamics in a transitional forest of west-central Mexico (2011)

FIGUEROA-RANGEL, B.L., WILLIS, K.J. & OLVERA-VARGAS | DOI: doi: 10.1177/0959683611414929

Stability in Ecosystem Functioning across a Climatic Threshold and Contrasting Forest Regimes (2011)

JEFFERS, E. S., BONSALL, M. B. & WILLIS, K. J. | DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0016134

Abrupt environmental changes drive shifts in plant-plant interaction outcomes (2011)

JEFFERS, E.S., M.B. BONSALL, S.J. BROOKS and K.J. WILLIS | DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-2745.2011.01816.x

Climate change impacts on ecosystem functioning: evidence from an Empetrum heathland (2011)

JEFFERS, E.S., BONSALL, M.B., WATSON, J.E. & WILLIS, K.J. (2011) | DOI: doi: 10.1111/j.1469-8137.2011.03907.x.

Vegetation changes in the Neotropical Gran Sabana (Venezuela) around the Younger Dryas Chron (2011)

MONTOYA, E; RULL, V; STANSELL, N.D; BIRD, B.W; NOGUE, S; VEGAS-VILARRUBIA, T; ABBOTT, M.B; & DIAZ, W.A. | DOI:

Simulation and Estimation of Probabilities of Phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (2011)

NAIRN-BIRCH N., DIEZ D., ESLAMI E., MACIAS FAURIA M., JOHNSON E.A. and SCHOENBERG F.P. | DOI: