Oxford Long-Term Ecology Lab

Long-Term Ecology, Biodiversity Conservation, and Environmental Stewardship Technologies

Global Pollen Project v1.0 (2017)

Martin, A. C., Harvey, W. J. | DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.260180

The Global Pollen Project: A New Tool for Pollen Identification and the Dissemination of Physical Reference Collections (2017)

Martin, A. C., Harvey, W. J. | DOI: 10.1111/2041-210X.12752

Trees for life: the ecosystem service contribution of trees to food production and livelihoods in the tropics. (2017)

Reed J , van Vianen J, Foli S, Clendenning J, Yang K, MacDonald M, Petrokofsky G, Padoch C, Sunderland T. | DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.forpol.2017.01.012

What is the evidence that gender affects access to and use of forest assets for food security? (2017)

Chiwona-Karltun C, Kimanzu N, Clendenning J, Lodin JB, Ellingson C, Lidestav G, Mkwambisi D, Mwangi E, Nhantumbo I,Ochieng C, Sartas M, Petrokofsky G, | DOI: 10.1186/s13750-016-0080-9

What is the effect of prescribed burning in temperate and boreal forest on biodiversity, beyond tree regeneration, pyrophilous and saproxylic species? A systematic review protocol. (2016)

Eales J, Haddaway NR, Bernes C, Cooke SJ, Jonsson BG, Kouki J, Petrokofsky G | DOI: 10.1186/s13750-016-0076-5

Selecting appropriate methods of knowledge synthesis to inform biodiversity policy. (2016)

Pullin A, Frampton G, Jongman R, Kohl C, Livoreil B, Lux A, Pataki G, Petrokofsky G, Podhora A, Saarikoski H et al. | DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2016.03.023

Pollination service delivery for European crops: challenges and opportunities. (2016)

Nogué S, Long PR, Eycott AE, de Nascimento L, Fernández-Palacios JM, Petrokofsky G, Vandvik V, Willis KJ | DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2016.03.023

What evidence exists for the effectiveness of on-farm conservation land management strategies for preserving ecosystem services in developing countries? A systematic map. (2016)

Thorn JPR, Friedman R, Benz D, Willis KJ, Petrokofsky G | DOI: 10.1186/s13750-016-0064-9

Sensitivity of global terrestrial ecosystems to climate variability (2016)

Seddon, A.W.R., M. Macias-Fauria, P.R. Long, D. Benz, K.J. Willis | DOI: doi:10.1038/nature16986

The devil is in the detail: unstable response functions in species distribution models challenge bulk ensemble modelling (2016)

Hannemann, H. , Willis, K. J., Macias-Fauria, M. | DOI: 10.1111/geb.12381

The relative importance of biotic and abiotic processes for structuring plant communities through time (2015)

E.S. Jeffers, M.B. Bonsall, C.A. Froyd, S.J. Brooks, K.J. Willis | DOI: DOI: 10.1111/1365-2745.12365

The role of palaeoecological records in assessing ecosystem services (2015)

E.S. Jeffers, S. Nogue, K.J. Willis | DOI: 10.1016/j.quascirev.2014.12.018

Spatiotemporal patterns of warming (2014)

Macias-Fauria, M., A.W.R. Seddon, D. Benz, P.R. Long, and K.J. Willis | DOI: doi:10.1038/nclimate2372

Recovery and resilience of tropical forests after disturbance (2014)

Cole, L.E.S., S.A. Bhagwat, and K.J. Willis | DOI: 10.1038/ncomms4906

Changes in global nitrogen cycling during the Holocene epoch (2013)

McLauchlan, K.K., J.J. Williams, J.M. Craine and Elizabeth S. Jeffers. | DOI: 10.1038/nature11916

Determining the response of African biota to climate change: using the past to model the future (2013)

Willis, K.J., K.D. Bennett, S.L. Burrough, M. Macias-Fauria, C. Tovar | DOI:

Handbook for opening the vault: a helpful guide to using and interpreting paleontological data (2013)

Jeffers, E. S. | DOI:

Diverging responses of Tropical Andean biomes under future climate conditions (2013)

Tovar, C., C.A.Arnillas, F. Cuesta C., W. Buytaert | DOI:

Warming-induced upslope advance of sub-alpine forest is severely limited by geomorphic processes (2013)

Macias-Fauria M., and Johnson, E.A. | DOI: doi: 10.1073/pnas.1221278110.

Do dung fungal spores make a good proxy for past distribution of large herbivores? (2013)

Baker, A.G., Bhagwat, S.A., Willis, K.J. | DOI:

Landscape planning for the future: using fossil records to independently validate Bioclimate Envelope Models for economically valuable tree species in Europe (2013)

Macias-Fauria M., and Willis, K.J. | DOI: 10.1111/j.1466-8238.2012.00781.x

Reply to Cordova et al.’s comment on ‘Can phytoliths provide an insight into past vegetation of the Middle Kalahari palaeolakes during the late Quaternary’: A case of misinterpretation (2013)

Burrough, S. and Breman, E. | DOI:

Monitoring land use and land cover change in mountain regions: An example in the Jalca grasslands of the Peruvian Andes (2013)

Tovar, C., A. H. Seijmonsbergen, J. F. Duivenvoorden | DOI:

The ancient forests of La Gomera, Canary Islands, and their sensitivity to environmental change (2013)

Nogué, S.; de Nascimento, L; Fernández-Palacios, J.M.; Whittaker, R.J.; Willis, K.J. | DOI:

A chronology of climatic downturns through the mid and late Holocene – tracing the distant effects of explosive eruptions from palaeoclimatic and historical evidence in Northern Europe (2013)

Helama S., Holopainen J., Macias-Fauria M., Timonen M., Mielikäinen K. | DOI: doi: 10.3402/polar.v32i0.15866.

Elevational gradients in the neotropical table mountains: patterns of endemism and implications for conservation (2012)

Nogué, S; Rull, V; Vegas-Vilarrúbia, T. | DOI:

Resilience of an ancient tropical forest landscape to 7500 years of environmental change (2012)

Bhagwat, S. A.; Nogué, S.; Willis, K.J. | DOI:

Global warming, habitat shifts and potential refugia for biodiversity conservation in the neotropical Guayana Highlands (2012)

Vegas-Vilarrúbia, T.; Nogué, S.; Rull, V. | DOI:

Discussing the latest advances in biogeography with young biogeographers (2012)

Nogué, S.; Santos, A.M.C.; Sanders, M.; Ochoa-Ochoa, L.M. | DOI:

Recent Changes in Patch Characteristics and Plant Communities in the Jalca grasslands of the Peruvian Andes (2012)

Tovar, C., J. F. Duivenvoorden, I. Sánchez-Vega, A. H. Seijmonsbergen | DOI:

Plant and animal endemism in the eastern Andean slope: Challenges to conservation (2012)

Swenson, J.J., B.E. Young, S. Beck, P. Comer, J. H. Córdova, J. Dyson, D. Ember, F. Encarnación, W. Ferreira, I. Franke, D. Grossman, P Hernandez, S. K. Herzog, C. Josse, G. Navarro, V. Pacheco, B. A. Stein, M. Timaná, A. Tovar, C. Tovar, J. Vargas, C. M. Zambrana-Torrelio. | DOI:

Persistence matters: estimation of the statistical significance of paleoclimatic reconstruction statistics from autocorrelated time series (2012)

Macias-Fauria M. and Grinsted A., Helama S., and Holopainen J. | DOI: doi: 10.1016/j.dendro.2011.08.003

Determining the ecological value of landscapes beyond protected areas (2012)

Willis, K.J., E.S. Jeffers, C. Tovar, P. Long, N. Caithness, M.G.D. Smith, R. Hagemann, C. Collin-Hansen, J. Weissenberger. | DOI:

Shrub expansion in tundra ecosystems: Dynamics, impacts and research priorities (2012)

Myers-Smith I, Forbes B.C., Wilmking M., Hallinger M., Lantz T., Blok D., Tape K.D., Macias-Fauria M., Sass-Klaassen U., Lévesque E., Boudreau S., Ropars P., Hermanutz L., Trant A., Siegwart Collier L., Weijers S., Rozema J., Rayback S.A., Martin Schmidt N., Schaepman-Strub G., Wipf S., Rixen C., Ménard C., Venn S., Goetz S., Andreu-Hayles L., Elmendorf S., Epstein H.E., Welker J., Grogan P., and Hik D. | DOI: doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/6/4/045509

Climate change impacts on ecosystem functioning: evidence from an Empetrum heathland (2012)

Jeffers, E.S., M.B. Bonsall, J. Watson and K.J. Willis | DOI: 10.1111/j.1469-8137.2011.03907.x

Early human occupation and land use changes near the boundary of the Orinoco and the Amazon basins (SE Venezuela): Palynological evidence from El Paují record (2011)

MONTOYA, E.; RULL, V.; NOGUÉ, S. | DOI:

Forest–savanna–morichal dynamics in relation to fire and human occupation in the southern Gran Sabana (SE Venezuela) during the last millennia (2011)

MONTOYA, E.; RULL, V.; STANSELL, N.D.; ABBOTT, M.B.; NOGUÉ, S.; BIRD, W.B.; DÍAZ, W.A. | DOI: 10.1016/j.yqres.2011.06.014

How fire and climate shaped grass-dominated vegetation and forest mosaics in northern South Africa during past millennia. (2011)

BREMAN, E., GILLSON, l. & WILLIS, K.J. | DOI: doi: 10.1177/0959683611400196

When is an invasive not an invasive? Macrofossil evidence of doubtful native plant species in the Galapagos Islands. (2011)

COFFEY, E.E.D., FROYD, C.A., WILLIS, K.J. | DOI:

Late-Holocene successional dynamics in a transitional forest of west-central Mexico (2011)

FIGUEROA-RANGEL, B.L., WILLIS, K.J. & OLVERA-VARGAS | DOI: doi: 10.1177/0959683611414929

Stability in Ecosystem Functioning across a Climatic Threshold and Contrasting Forest Regimes (2011)

JEFFERS, E. S., BONSALL, M. B. & WILLIS, K. J. | DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0016134

Abrupt environmental changes drive shifts in plant-plant interaction outcomes (2011)

JEFFERS, E.S., M.B. BONSALL, S.J. BROOKS and K.J. WILLIS | DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-2745.2011.01816.x

Climate change impacts on ecosystem functioning: evidence from an Empetrum heathland (2011)

JEFFERS, E.S., BONSALL, M.B., WATSON, J.E. & WILLIS, K.J. (2011) | DOI: doi: 10.1111/j.1469-8137.2011.03907.x.

Vegetation changes in the Neotropical Gran Sabana (Venezuela) around the Younger Dryas Chron (2011)

MONTOYA, E; RULL, V; STANSELL, N.D; BIRD, B.W; NOGUE, S; VEGAS-VILARRUBIA, T; ABBOTT, M.B; & DIAZ, W.A. | DOI:

Simulation and Estimation of Probabilities of Phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (2011)

NAIRN-BIRCH N., DIEZ D., ESLAMI E., MACIAS FAURIA M., JOHNSON E.A. and SCHOENBERG F.P. | DOI:

Ecosystem resilience and threshold response in the Galapagos coastal zone. (2011)

SEDDON, A.W.R., FROYD, C.A., LENG, M.J., ,MILNE, G.A., & WILLIS, K.J. | DOI: doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0022376

Diatoms (Bacillariophyta) of isolated islands: New taxa in the genus Navicula sensu stricto from the Galápagos Islands (2011)

SEDDON A.W.R., FROYD, C.A., WITKOWSKI, A. | DOI: doi: 10.1111/j.1529-8817.2011.01026.x

Quantification of UV-B flux through time using UV-B absorbing compounds contained in fossil Pinus sporopollenin (2011)

WILLIS, K.J., FEURDEAN, A., BIRKS, H.J.B., BJUNES, A.E. BREMAN, E., BROCKMAN, R., GRYTNES, J-A., NEW, M., SINGARAYER, J.S. & ROZEMA, J. | DOI: 10.1111/j.1469-8137.2011.03815.x

Long-term ecological records and their relevance for climate change prediction for a warmer world (2011)

WILLIS, K.J. & MACDONALD, G.M. | DOI: 10.1146/annurev-ecolsys-102209-144704